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14 October 2018 | AutoData In January, Fenabrave estimated a market growth close to 12% for 2018. In April, it revised the index upwards, at the range of 14.5%, but therewas a new revision in July, downwards this time, to 10%. Can we expect any other change of scenario from now until December, maybe going back to the 12%? The first review was based on the good results of the first quarter. The market reactedwell up toMay, until the truckers’ strike. It interrupted many things, the vehicles did not reach the dealerships and the parts did not reach the factories. This explains the second review.We have noticed a slight recovery since July and August reversed the picture, even earlier than we expected: we thought it would be for the second half of September, or October. In August, compared to July, light and commercial vehicles sales incre- ased almost 15% and therewere 14%more compared to August last year. It was the best month of the year. And in the annual comparison the sales also reached a 14% increase. We still work, considering the entire sector, with an estimate growth of 10% for the end of the year, but if this August performance is kept in the next months we may change the projections. By Marcos Rozen The overall picture, anyway, is positive then? The base is still low, but we are recove- ring. 2015 and 2016 were the worst years for the Brazilian automotive industry and, consequently, for the vehicle distri- bution industry. In a very basic account we have had the total GDP decrease of 7% these two years. The second half of 2017 brought an encouragement, sho- wed a beginning of recovery. Take a look at the general scenario that we had some ago: interest rates decreased from approximately 14% to 6.5% and inflation dropped from the double digit to a 3% range. These two factors were extreme- ly positive for the industry. I always say that what sells cars is the low interest, what sells trucks is GDP and what sells motorcycles is employment. Due to the reduction of these variables’ indexes, the trust level of returned from the in- vestor and the buyer as well. And you would say that this scenario tends to remain? Yes, if the normal temperature and pressure parameters are preserved. The elections generate a tension, which is natural, and the trust index has stopped FROM THE TOP » ALARICO ASSUMPÇÃO JR., FENABRAVE Faith on the double-digit