AD_MAGAZINE_349

16 October 2018 | AutoData FROM THE TOP » ALARICO ASSUMPÇÃO JR., FENABRAVE Sowe are talking about a low-two-digit market increase, something about 10%? I believe so, but always considering ke- eping this scenario that we live today. And the process of reducing the num- ber of dealerships in the chains overall, is it consolidated already? There are still some natural movements, such as the ownership change, but not what happened in 2015 and 2016, with stores closing for economic reasons. This process has stabilized, we did not have this problem this year. Is there any possibility to see the chains growing again next year? This will depend on the market, a lot. I believe that the current chain size is well adjusted for the market we have now, it is well proportioned. This way, the opening of new stores will depend essentially on a bigger demand, althou- gh we can see some particular strategy in this sense. What are Fenabrave’s projections for the end of the year in terms of macro- economic indexes? We estimate the dollar rate at R$ 3.60, GDP at 1.6%, Selic rate at 6.5% and in- flation at 4.2% for the end of this year. And for next year, what are the econo- mic estimates? At the moment we forecast a dollar rate at R$ 3.50, GDP at 2.7%, Selic slightly higher than this year, to 8%, and stable inflation, keeping the 4.2%. increasing, it is exhibiting a more stable behavior. Anyway, we should close the year at a relatively healthy level, espe- cially compared to the last years. The automotive sector, especially the automobile and light commercial seg- ments, is heavily dependent on credit. What is the current overview? A very favorable point in the credit is- sue is the default rate, which has fallen sharply. Default reached 7.5% range and is now around 3.5%. And this improve- ment is notable especially for individu- als, precisely the ones who will go to the showroom, visit the stores, negotiate. Due to this, the banks’ approvals index also improved: we used to work with an average of three approved forms in every ten, and this ratio is around four and a half in every ten today. And what does Fenabrave foresees for 2019? Could it be at least like 2018? It will depend on who will win the elec- tions and govern Brazil in the coming years as there are different proposals from the several candidates. We can reformulate our projections until the end of the year, but we should wait before setting the numbers for next year, for prudence. But in general terms, we do believe that we can repeat this year’s re- sult for next year, but inside the scenario we are living now, taking into account the results already collected this year. In general, we can say that we don’t believe in a worsening next year com- pared to this year. “In general, we can say that we don’t believe in a worsening next year compared to this year.”