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36 October 2018 | AutoData PERSPECTIVES 2019 » MACROECONOMICS than benefits to the economy and, therefo- re, the tendency is to continue a turbulent scenario. In the analysis of Viktor Andrade, EY’s lead partner in mergers and acquisitions in Brazil, Brazil’s fairlymoderate growth in 2018 made that the real economy did not react as much as expected - therewas the truckers’ strike, world cup and elections in the middle of the road. The final score should point to GDP on the range of 1%. For the expert, the generation of a pri- mary surplus, with fiscal austerity, would give stability to the market and help the government get out of a debt that today is 75% to 80% of the GDP, returning to the level of 50%: “A sign of stability from the public accounts would bring investments and more peace to the market.” Uncertainties and obstacles are also in theworksheets of Giovanni Cordeiro, rese- arch manager and economist at Deloitte: “We have captured the wasted opportu- nities to generate jobs, a big consumer market and growth perspectives in the medium and long term, from 3% to 4% per year, until 2030”. For him, there are too many obstacles, regulations and bureaucracies in Brazil, aspects that discourage investments: “We realized, in a survey, that the companies don’t feel safe with the Brazilian regula- tions.” But even so, he sees that direct foreign investments continue to be high, with po- sitive prospects from entrepreneurs and investors who seek acquisitions and fac- tories expansions. For Cordeiro, the market is worried about the reforms approval: “The candi- date who wins the elections will have to present fast responses and be transparent in some actions. As this happens insecurity will start to disappear”. Luiz Montenegro, president of Anef, an association that represents the au- tomakers’ banks, adds that trusting the economy leads to greater credit capacity: “The customers are not happy let alone optimistic, but not as afraid as they used to be. Because of the stability and certain job maintenance the consumption has been happening, there is the repressed demand of the last years. People postponed their purchases of greater value items andwith that, they returned to the stores”. For him, 2018 is inside the expectations calculated at the end of last year: “Wewere surprised by the currency’s behavior, but regarding the interest rate and the liquidity level of the Brazilian market, there was no change. Unemployment is still high but has slightly improved and this contributes to overall consumption”. According to his accounts, the expec- ted growth in the funds release for vehicle financing should be around 15% until the end of the year, with the prospect for an increase. The default of individuals is sta- ble, which favors new customers to be able to obtain credit with less restriction and financing in up to sixty months. In the case of the interest rate, Mon- tenegro affirms, the prognosis is more difficult, “but the economy says it can be lowered”. “Regardless of the candidate who wins the elections in Brazil, we will have a 2019 better than 2018.” Miguel Jorge, of Barral M Jorge Consultoria Divulgação/ EBC