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40 October 2018 | AutoData Metallurgical and Component Industries of Córdoba, says the situation is complex and warns for a “serious risk to the local auto parts sector if the scenario of productive interruption continues”. WHAT TO BE EXPECTED The abrupt change of situation has led to remove any optimism. Today, they are all resigned to the volume of 480 thousand to 500 thousand units produced and 290 thousand units exported, with internal sales of 800 thousand to 820 thousand. Rattazzi complains that “the automotive sector needs predictability. Uncertainties and high rates hit hard, as evidenced by the declining market demand. Today, the ones who have buying capacity choose the dollar’s refuge andwho is tied to credit faces the futurewith great uncertainty. For all of this, the forecasts for a record year regarding the Argentine market have been gradually disappearing, and now, for 2019, the projections will be very conservative”. Submerged in a scenario of uncertain- ties the executives do not evenwant to risk numbers. The most widely argument used is that the crisis and the official decisions can leave some damage to the companies and, this way, make it difficult to work with any projection at this time. Adefa, in a statement, said: “We will have to wait for the development of the first quarter of 2019 to understand the real dimension of the market behavior”. Unofficially, and on secrecy condition, some executives presented their visions for 2019: those who cultivate a more op- timistic view understand that production can reach the range of 550 thousand units, 310 thousand exports and750 thousand vehicles sold. And the most conservative group believes in production of 500 thou- sand units, market of 700 thousand and exports of 280 thousand units. To further mess the scenario 2019 will be the year of presidential election in Ar- gentina. This way, in a classic behavior, market volatility will put all statistics and projections to the test. Car financing down The financing for the purchase of cars, one of the main marketing tools in the Argentine market, began to register a strong retrocession because of the increase in rates and vehicle prices. According to Acara, a local association of distributors, 33.3 thousand vehicles were financed in August, which accounted for 52% of the total, of total sales in the month. The sector claims that the retraction was basically due to the increase in interest rates, driven by the dollar’s rise. It was the fifth consecutive month in which the financings contracted. The drop started in April, down 3% comparing year by year. In May, - 14%, in June decrease of 27% and in July, 28% less. The value of the financing installments, obviously, is determined by the price of 0 KM vehicle. And also, the financial plans have been tightly adjusted during the year, because it is estimated that new vehicle prices increased more than 40% in 2018. PERSPECTIVES 2019 » ARGENTINA “Unfortunately the urgencies have led to measures that no government feels comfortable with, like the return of taxation on exports.” Cristiano Rattazzi