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6 October 2018 | AutoData How are Anfavea’s projections being drawn for 2019? It is difficult to project the future without knowingwho the newBrazilian president will be. They have different proposals, which can cause reactions in the stock market, dollar, level of trust, etc. We will wait for the declarations after the elec- tions, the constitution of the ministries. I think everyone is going to wait a little (to draw projections), including us, from Anfavea. Will the economic issue depend funda- mentally on politics, then? These two points are never totally dis- connected, but it seems to me that the customer behavior is a little disconnec- ted, in this case, a kind of understanding that Brazil has an open political question but, meanwhile, we will move on. Whe- ther or not the indicators are good, the interest rate should remain low, banks shouldmaintain the credit levels, default is controlled, agribusiness indexes are excellent, companies are producing and selling and, therefore, the risk of losing the job is lower. It is remarkable how much the market has grown this year... There are some reasons for this. We had good years in 2012, 2013 and 2014, and these cars are older, anyone who has one of these cars already excee- ded the time to change them, there is a lack of semi-new cars in the market, so By Marcos Rozen people are going back to the stores, to buy a new one. And the new cars have connectivity levels that these semi-new models don’t, and this is a customer’s desire today. The average daily sales of month beginning is above 10 thousand cars and the end of the month reached 16 thousand units, something that we haven’t seen for some time. What about the exports? Unfortunately, Argentina is living a very complicated situation, it undermines our shipments. Our export forecast for 2018 was 800 thousand units, then we decreased to 766 thousand and now we see that if it reaches 700 thousand, it will be a reason to celebrate. The part of production that was already program- med for the exports, with the purchased parts, turned to Brazil’s market and then they have to be sold, there are discoun- ting, actions for destocking, but even with those things the stock has grown. Other countries in the region had better results, but Argentina still accounts for 75% of purchases. So, even if we send more vehicles to other countries like Chile, Colombia, etc., this has a limit: even selling to other markets, it is not possible to compensate for everything that will be lost. Did this motivate the recent revision of projections for 2018? We changed the Brazilian local market projection from 11.7% to an average close FROM THE TOP » ANTONIO MEGALE, ANFAVEA Hope for the best and move on