AD_MAGAZINE_349

8 October 2018 | AutoData FROM THE TOP » ANTONIO MEGALE, ANFAVEA What can be expected particularly for trucks and buses? I think the market will keep growing, not at the indexes we have in 2018 because the base of 2017 is low, but it will continue at a double-digit increase. If there is no unexpected weather issue we should have a supersafra (bumper crop), which will demand more trucks. In addition to that, there is a freight issue, logistics, and transporters know that new trucks are moremodern, with higher cargo capacity and more economical vehicles, so there must be a move in this direction too. And the Rota 2030 program, will it really come into force in 2019? We will have Rota. The problem now is that the Congress does not set a mee- ting because the parliamentarians are in campaign. The commission was cons- tituted, there is a discussion around an amendment, regarding the Northeast, that will have to be equated somehow. What is clear to us, here at Anfavea, is that we can’t let any dispute over an amendment, in anyway, endanger Rota 2030. We will have the approval but if the president will veto something after that, I don’t know. That’s another story. But we have a commitment from the government that Rota will be approved. In terms of macroeconomic data, what does Anfavea project for 2019? We believe the inflation will be inside the goal, it is the scenario that we are working on. GDP should be at 2.5%. It is a bit harder to say about the dollar, I believe it will stay belowR$ 4 and above R$ 3.50. It is above what we predicted. Previously, we imagined that, a good number would be from R$ 3.20 to R$ 3.40, but this will be difficult to achieve now. Selic (interest rate) will not reach 7%, in our view, although it hardly stays at 6.25%. These are the premises which we are working with. to 13.5%, but the decrease in exports will affect production, which in any case will not changemuch, it should be very close to the house of 3 million units, a little bit lower than previously expected, which was 3 million 21 thousand. What can we expect, in practice, from next year? We believe that Brazil will grow again in a more robust way. I would say that regardless ofwhowins the election there is commitment to the reforms that are necessary, there is this awareness of the candidates. It should bring a little more confidence and that GDP that we ex- pected for this year, 2.5%, should come. It seems that wewill have a double-digit growth in themarket, even two lowdigits, something around 10%, 11%. It seems viable to me. “Everything leads me to believe that we will have a double-digit growth in the Brazilian intern market, even two low digits.” And for production? I believe that with the measures that the Argentine government is taking, the situ- ation should be better at some point in the first quarter of 2019. I believe that next year exports to Argentina will improve, in contrast to exports to Mexico. Chile is doingwell, Colombia iswalking sideways but we can move forward because the rate increases. So I believe that this view of a low double digit increase in the do- mestic market may even be shared for production as well, maybe a little less, but it will certainly grow.